"The Basics and Phases of the Ukrainian Offensive: A Detailed Analysis"

 

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mi3ch.livejournal.com

4 min

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Explanatory article by Thomas Tayner "The Basics and Phases" about the speed of the Ukrainian offensive

The reason why the first stage of the offensive operation of the UAF is not considered successful is that everyone is used to American / NATO wars, in which the first stage is exclusively air power.

Phase 1 is designed to deplete enemy forces and intercept/disrupt their lines of communication. The West uses fighters and bombers, as well as cruise missiles.

During the Gulf War in 1991, coalition aviation (more than 1,700 combat vehicles) took 37(!) days and more than 100,000 sorties to deplete Iraqi forces enough to launch a ground campaign. 288 Tomahawk cruise missiles were fired at Iraqi targets.

During the 2003 invasion of Iraq, coalition warplanes flew 41,000 sorties and fired 802 Tomahawks at Iraqi targets. At that time, the coalition skipped the attrition phase and went directly to the second phase - close air support, namely, the bombing of the road to Baghdad for the 1st Marine Division and 3rd Infantry Division.

Ukraine has nothing of the kind; and therefore she is forced to replace fighters and bombers with GMLRS, Excalibur, Storm Shadow and drones. And if during American and NATO military operations the sky is constantly teeming with fighters and bombers in search of enemy positions and equipment to destroy, then Ukraine has only drones in the air that are looking for Russian equipment, ammunition depots, command centers, logistics points, etc. But drones cannot bomb these objects. As soon as the drone detects a target, its operator must request the coordinates, which are then transmitted to the calculation of the M142 HIMARS or M270A1 MLRS launcher, and he enters the target's coordinates into the GMLRS missile; either the coordinates are transferred to the crews of howitzers M777, PzH 2000, M109A6 or Archer, and those enter the target coordinates into the Excalibur projectile; or the data is transmitted to the 7th tactical aviation brigade of the Ukrainian Air Force, which enters the target coordinates into the Storm Shadow missile ...

Have you noticed that all this takes time? Ukraine can only strike at immobile Russian equipment.

Unlike Western fighter jets, which can hit the passenger seat of a moving car, Ukraine can only hit stationary Russian vehicles and objects. Huge drawback.

Worse yet, an American fighter can fly deep into enemy territory and hit a dozen targets 500 kilometers from the front line, while Ukraine's range is limited: Excalibur range - 40 km, GMLRS - 84 km, Storm Shadow - 500 s extra km, but there are a limited number of these missiles.

Thus, Ukraine has a huge handicap in terms of time to calibrate targets and range of systems (GLSDB projectiles will increase the range of HIMARS installations, but the production line has not yet been launched ...).

Now, if you are Russia, all you have to do is park your heavy equipment outside of the GMLRS radius and Ukraine won't be able to hit it. It makes no sense to use an expensive Storm Shadow missile to destroy, for example, a Russian T-90M tank...

Yet Ukraine must destroy Russia's heavy equipment before it can launch a second phase of the offensive. And the only way to do that is to lure Russian forces into the GMLRS and Excalibur coverage area. And Ukraine is doing it right now, attacking the Russian lines with four of the ten brigades that have been trained for this phase:

- 23rd Mechanized Brigade;

- 31st mechanized brigade;

- 37th Marine Brigade;

- 47th mechanized brigade.

All other brigades (i.e. 35th Naval, 68th Jaeger, etc.) simply support these four brigades. Six more brigades can be deployed in this phase of the offensive.

Now the Russians are in a dilemma: either push their heavy equipment forward, risking losing it to GMLRS and Excalibur, or leave their heavy equipment out of range and allow Ukraine an unexpected early breakthrough ... Well, the Russians decided to push their equipment forward, and Ukraine hitting her relentlessly.

But this is happening much, much slower than with the use of aviation. And, unlike the air campaign, in this phase of the offensive, Ukraine is losing troops and equipment... And this has led some analysts to declare the Ukrainian offensive a "failure"... This is NOT SO. These "analysts" and "experts" simply do not understand the Ukrainian plan.

And they do not understand that Ukraine is getting stronger every day: it has prepared 35 (!) Brigades for the offensive, forming new units, dividing the existing ones, removing units from the front and renewing them ... And only 4 out of 35 brigades are now in combat.

Everyone else is on the training grounds - training every day to improve their skills; and use the lessons learned in the offensive. And every day, military personnel return from exercises in NATO countries and Sweden; new equipment arrives - the brigades of the Offensive Guard started out as light infantry, and are now receiving tanks from Germany and Denmark and turning into mechanized formations.

So many soldiers are returning from training in Europe that Ukraine has recently formed three new brigades; and as the Russians have halted attacks in the south and along the Donetsk front, Ukraine has recently withdrawn two elite brigades from the front to freshen them up for the offensive.

How can an offensive "fail" if more than 90% of the forces are still preparing to attack?

I do not know when the next phase of the Ukrainian offensive will begin, but I am sure that it is not tied to a date or specific geographical points. I assume that the next phase will begin when Ukraine is confident that it has destroyed a certain percentage of the remaining Russian howitzers, missile launchers, electronic warfare systems, air defense systems; that it caused serious damage to Russian logistics, hitting Russian supply lines, and destroyed most of the Russian ammunition depots and command posts ... In general, the same parameters as before the ground phase of Operation Desert Storm in 1991.

The offensive of Ukraine has barely begun. And due to the lack of air power, the first phase will take much longer than what people are used to. But journalists need to come up with a new drama every day.

The real story here is how many more forces Ukraine is training, how many more forces Ukraine and NATO are training, how many more weapons the West has to provide for these new units.

In the third stage of the offensive, Ukrainian troops will break through Russian lines and liberate Mariupol, cross the Dnieper and liberate Northern Crimea, and then destroy the Russian army in the south.

Ukraine's victory is inevitable. We just need a little patience.

Title: "The Basics and Phases of the Ukrainian Offensive: A Detailed Analysis"

Subtitle: Understanding the Speed and Challenges Faced by Ukraine

Introduction:

In this informative article, Thomas Tayner delves into the intricacies of the Ukrainian offensive and sheds light on the reasons behind its perceived lack of success in the initial stage. Drawing comparisons to American/NATO military operations, the author highlights the unique challenges faced by Ukraine and provides insights into the phased approach adopted by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF).

Keywords: Ukrainian offensive, speed, American/NATO wars, air power, depleting enemy forces, lines of communication, coalition aviation, Gulf War, Iraq invasion, fighters, bombers, cruise missiles, GMLRS, Excalibur, Storm Shadow, drones, Russian equipment, immobile targets, drawbacks, range limitations, calibrating targets, heavy equipment, Russian T-90M tank, brigades, offensive plan, training, improving skills, new equipment, mechanized formations, Russian howitzers, missile launchers, logistics, ammunition depots, command posts, Operation Desert Storm, patience, victory.

Hashtags for Twitter:

1. #UkrainianOffensive

2. #SpeedOfAdvancement

3. #PhasedApproach

4. #ChallengesAndStrategies

5. #UAFStrength

6. #AirPowerComparison

7. #DronesInAction

8. #RussianEquipment

9. #RangeLimitations

10. #BrigadesPreparedness

11. #NATOAssistance

12. #StrategicObjectives

13. #UkraineVsRussia

14. #VictoryIsInevitable

15. #PatienceForTriumph

Conclusion:

While the initial stage of the Ukrainian offensive may seem slower compared to conventional air-centric operations, it is crucial to understand the unique circumstances Ukraine faces. The ongoing training, reinforcement, and acquisition of new weaponry indicate the strengthening of Ukrainian forces. The next phase will commence when key objectives are met, including substantial damage to Russian forces and infrastructure. With patience and persistence, Ukraine's victory in this conflict is inevitable.

Literary Rewrite:

Headline: "Decoding the Ukrainian Offensive: Analyzing the Speed and Challenges"

Subtitle: "A Detailed Look into the Phased Approach and Future Prospects"

Introduction:

In this comprehensive article penned by Thomas Tayner, we unravel the intricacies of the Ukrainian offensive and delve into the reasons behind its seemingly slow progress in the initial stage. Drawing parallels with well-known American and NATO military campaigns, the author sheds light on the distinctive hurdles faced by Ukraine and provides astute insights into the calculated approach adopted by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF).

Keywords: Ukrainian offensive, swiftness, American and NATO conflicts, air superiority, depletion of enemy forces, disruption of communication lines, coalition aerial operations, Gulf War, invasion of Iraq, fighter jets, strategic bombers, cruise missile strikes, GMLRS, Excalibur, Storm Shadow, unmanned aerial vehicles, Russian military assets, static targets, operational limitations, aerial precision, Russian T-90M tank, mechanized brigades, operational plan, training regimen, skills enhancement, Western support, advanced weaponry, evolving formations, Russian artillery, missile systems, logistical networks, ammunition stockpiles, command infrastructure, Operation Desert Storm, enduring resolve, impending triumph.

Twitter Hashtags:

1. #UkrainianOffensive

2. #SwiftAdvancement

3. #StrategicPhases

4. #FormidableChallenges

5. #UAF'sResilience

6. #AirPowerComparison

7. #UnmannedAerialOperations

8. #RussianMilitarization

9. #OperationalConstraints

10. #PreparedBrigades

11. #NATO'sAssistance

12. #StrategicObjectives

13. #UkraineVsRussia

14. #TriumphOnHorizon

15. #ResolutePatience

Conclusion:

Although the initial stage of the Ukrainian offensive unfolds at a measured pace, distinct from the rapidity of traditional air-centric endeavors, one must comprehend Ukraine's unique circumstances. The ceaseless efforts in training, bolstering, and modernizing the armed forces underscore Ukraine's growing strength. The subsequent phase will commence once pivotal objectives, including substantial attrition of Russian forces and infrastructure, are achieved. With unyielding patience and unwavering determination, Ukraine is destined for triumph in this struggle.